A Midwest economic expert sees storm clouds on the horizon if current circumstances don’t change, somehow.
Growth was already expected to move lower, according to our expectations,” said Creighton University economist Ernie Goss. “That would be from say three to three and a half percent growth, which is reasonably good, to something like another percent lower to two and a half.”
It seems like events are conspiring for an even quicker hitting of the brakes.
“If this government shutdown continues,” said Goss. “If we don’t get a good trade pact with China and get that settling and we don’t see the global economy looking a little bit better, that would include Brexit and some certainty there, I think, if this shutdown continues to go along, I think we could see a recession.”
If that happens, negative growth could be evident as soon as the fourth quarter of this year.
“When we had a shutdown in 2013 in October, that was the fourth quarter of 2013, we actually had a negative GDP number in the first quarter of 2014, the next quarter. The impacts are going to be with us for at least a little while.”
President Trump can still pull us out of the potential spin if the shutdown ends and trade policy is solidified, but it needs to happen soon.